2-Year MA Multiplier — the floor and the 5× ceiling.
Bitcoin's 730-day moving average and five times it, drawn as two bands. Price under the lower band has marked every major bear market low; price over the upper band marked the 2013 and 2017 bubble tops.
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Price inside the bands since 2011
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Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.
A ceiling not touched since 2017
Popularised by Philip Swift as a long-term investment tool. The ceiling hasn't been touched since 2017: the April 2021 top reached 0.83 of it, the 2025 top about a third, one more sign of Bitcoin's shrinking cycle peaks.
What it read at past tops and bottoms
| DATE | BTC CLOSE | PRICE / 5× CEILING | 2-YEAR SMA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 3.20× | $70.83 |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 14, 2015 | $171.41 | 0.09× | $361.80 |
| 2017 top | Dec 17, 2017 | $18,953 | 1.91× | $1,988 |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | 0.11× | $5,684 |
| April 2021 top | Apr 13, 2021 | $63,564 | 0.83× | $15,327 |
| November 2021 top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 0.52× | $25,924 |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 0.08× | $38,046 |
| 2025 top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 0.33× | $76,631 |
| Latest close | Sep 26, 2026 | $84,433 | 0.19× | $88,568 |
Get pinged when it crosses your level
The 2-year average sits at $88,568 today and the 5× ceiling at $442,842. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.
Fair questions, straight answers
Two lines: Bitcoin's 730-day (2-year) simple moving average, and that average multiplied by 5. Price below the 2-year average has marked the deepest parts of bear markets; price above the 5× band has marked bubble tops.
In late 2013 and in late 2017. It has not reached the band since — the April 2021 top got to 0.83 of it, and the 2025 top to about a third.
Through the 2015, 2018–2019, 2020 crash and 2022 bear market lows. Those stretches have been among the best long-term accumulation periods in Bitcoin's history.