BITCOIN · CYCLE BANDS

2-Year MA Multiplier — the floor and the 5× ceiling.

Bitcoin's 730-day moving average and five times it, drawn as two bands. Price under the lower band has marked every major bear market low; price over the upper band marked the 2013 and 2017 bubble tops.

BTC 2-YEAR MAAS OF SEP 26, 2026 CLOSE
0.95×Below 2-year average
BTC CLOSE$84,433
2-YEAR SMA (FLOOR)$88,568
5 × 2-YEAR SMA (CEILING)$442,842
PRICE / CEILING0.19×
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01CHART

Price inside the bands since 2011

COLOR
SCALE
RANGE
Price5 × 2-year SMA2-year SMA
AUG 2011 — SEP 2026

DAILY CLOSES · BITSTAMP BTC/USD · DRAG ACROSS THE CHART TO ZOOM · DOUBLE-CLICK TO RESET · +/− KEYS ZOOM

Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.

02CONTEXT

A ceiling not touched since 2017

Popularised by Philip Swift as a long-term investment tool. The ceiling hasn't been touched since 2017: the April 2021 top reached 0.83 of it, the 2025 top about a third, one more sign of Bitcoin's shrinking cycle peaks.

03HISTORY

What it read at past tops and bottoms

READINGS AT PAST CYCLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS
DATEBTC CLOSEPRICE / 5× CEILING2-YEAR SMA
2013 topDec 4, 2013$1,1323.20×$70.83
2015 bottomJan 14, 2015$171.410.09×$361.80
2017 topDec 17, 2017$18,9531.91×$1,988
2018 bottomDec 15, 2018$3,1800.11×$5,684
April 2021 topApr 13, 2021$63,5640.83×$15,327
November 2021 topNov 8, 2021$67,5590.52×$25,924
2022 bottomNov 21, 2022$15,7660.08×$38,046
2025 topOct 6, 2025$124,7280.33×$76,631
Latest closeSep 26, 2026$84,4330.19×$88,568
04ALERTS

Get pinged when it crosses your level

The 2-year average sits at $88,568 today and the 5× ceiling at $442,842. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.

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05FAQ

Fair questions, straight answers

Q1What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?

Two lines: Bitcoin's 730-day (2-year) simple moving average, and that average multiplied by 5. Price below the 2-year average has marked the deepest parts of bear markets; price above the 5× band has marked bubble tops.

Q2When did Bitcoin trade above the 5× band?

In late 2013 and in late 2017. It has not reached the band since — the April 2021 top got to 0.83 of it, and the 2025 top to about a third.

Q3When did Bitcoin trade below the 2-year average?

Through the 2015, 2018–2019, 2020 crash and 2022 bear market lows. Those stretches have been among the best long-term accumulation periods in Bitcoin's history.

Know
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