Bitcoin power law — fair value against time.
Plot the log of Bitcoin's price against the log of its age and the history falls close to a straight line. That line gives a long-run fair value for every day, and the widest historical swings around it frame a floor and a ceiling.
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Price against the power law since 2011
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Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.
A curve that doesn't move
The fair-value curve is fitted to Bitcoin's full daily price history and then frozen rather than refitted every day, so the line you see today is the one you'll see next year. The floor and ceiling mark the furthest price has historically strayed from it.
What it read at past tops and bottoms
| DATE | BTC CLOSE | PRICE / FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 10.69× | $105.92 |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 14, 2015 | $171.41 | 0.52× | $330.28 |
| 2017 top | Dec 17, 2017 | $18,953 | 6.32× | $3,000 |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | 0.59× | $5,398 |
| April 2021 top | Apr 13, 2021 | $63,564 | 3.64× | $17,447 |
| November 2021 top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 3.00× | $22,498 |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 0.45× | $34,666 |
| 2025 top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 1.26× | $99,091 |
| Latest close | Sep 26, 2026 | $84,433 | 0.62× | $135,731 |
Get pinged when it crosses your level
Fair value sits at $135,731 today and the floor at $50,220, both rising a little every day. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.
Fair questions, straight answers
A straight line on a log-log chart: the logarithm of price against the logarithm of days since the genesis block (January 3, 2009). Bitcoin's history fits it closely, which lets it act as a long-run fair-value curve.
The curve was fitted to Bitcoin's full daily price history and then frozen, so it isn't refitted as new data arrives. Fair value still rises every day, because the curve rises with Bitcoin's age.
The floor is the lowest Bitcoin has closed relative to fair value since 2011. The ceiling is the highest since 2015, reached at the 2017 top; the 2013 bubble went beyond it.
It's the same kind of model Giovanni Santostasi popularised, fitted independently to our own price data, so the curve differs somewhat from his published version.