Bitcoin risk metric — the cycle in one number.
A daily 0–1 reading of how stretched Bitcoin's price is against its own history. Low readings have lined up with past cycle bottoms, high readings with past tops. Updated every day from the last closed daily candle.
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Bitcoin price and risk
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Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.
What the score tells you
- 01Under 0.2 — compressed
Price sits low against its long-run trends. Every cycle bottom since 2015 read under 0.2: 0.05 in 2015, 0.12 in 2018, 0.07 in 2022.
- 020.4 to 0.6 — mid-cycle
Neither stretched nor compressed. Bitcoin spends much of each cycle here, on the way up and on the way down.
- 03Above 0.8 — extended
Price is far above its long-run trends. The 2013, 2017 and April 2021 tops all read above 0.9; recent tops have peaked lower.
The score combines several long-term Bitcoin cycle indicators into one reading, computed from daily closes. Each day's value is final once published — history is never revised with hindsight.
What it read at past tops and bottoms
| DATE | BTC CLOSE | RISK | READING | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 0.93 | Very high |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 14, 2015 | $171.41 | 0.05 | Very low |
| 2017 top | Dec 17, 2017 | $18,953 | 0.98 | Very high |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | 0.12 | Very low |
| April 2021 top | Apr 13, 2021 | $63,564 | 0.92 | Very high |
| November 2021 top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 0.73 | High |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 0.07 | Very low |
| 2025 top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 0.70 | High |
| Latest close | Sep 26, 2026 | $84,433 | 0.37 | Low |
Get pinged when it crosses your level
The risk metric moves with price — today's 0.37 came from a $84,433 close. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.
Fair questions, straight answers
A single 0–1 score for how stretched Bitcoin's price is relative to its own history. Near 0, price sits low against its long-term trends, as it did at past cycle bottoms. Near 1, price is extended, as it was at past cycle tops.
It combines several long-term Bitcoin cycle indicators, computed from daily closes, into a single 0–1 score. The exact method is proprietary.
No. Benjamin Cowen's risk metric, shown on Into The Cryptoverse, uses a formula he hasn't published. This is coinsentry's own independent metric with the same goal, so readings will differ from his.
No. Each day's value uses only data available up to that day and is final once published. The chart you see today will show the same past readings next year.
0.93 at the 2013 top, 0.98 at the 2017 top, 0.92 at the April 2021 top and 0.70 at the 2025 top. At the bottoms it read 0.05 (2015), 0.12 (2018) and 0.07 (2022). The full table is on this page.
It's a description, not an instruction. High readings mean price is extended relative to its history; before the 2017 and April 2021 tops the score sat above 0.8 for about four months, and the November 2021 top peaked at only 0.73. Use it as context alongside your own plan.