Pi Cycle Top — two averages, four crosses.
When Bitcoin's 111-day moving average climbs above twice its 350-day moving average, the market has historically been within days of a cycle top. It has fired four times since 2013 — and missed the last two tops entirely.
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The two lines since 2012
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Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.
Four crosses, two misses
Philip Swift published the indicator in 2019. The ratio form here is equivalent to watching the two lines cross, but says how close they are. Crosses in the daily data: April 5, 2013 · December 5, 2013 · December 16, 2017 · April 12, 2021.
What it read at past tops and bottoms
| DATE | BTC CLOSE | PI CYCLE RATIO | 111-DAY SMA | 2 × 350-DAY SMA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 0.998 | $278.07 | $278.55 |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 14, 2015 | $171.41 | 0.355 | $347.75 | $980.71 |
| 2017 top | Dec 17, 2017 | $18,953 | 1.005 | $7,100 | $7,068 |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | 0.377 | $5,811 | $15,424 |
| April 2021 top | Apr 13, 2021 | $63,564 | 1.001 | $45,531 | $45,473 |
| November 2021 top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 0.568 | $49,560 | $87,277 |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 0.325 | $20,081 | $61,870 |
| 2025 top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 0.569 | $113,841 | $199,908 |
| Latest close | Sep 26, 2026 | $84,433 | 0.439 | $68,936 | $157,006 |
Get pinged when it crosses your level
Twice the 350-day average sits at $157,006 today — the line the 111-day average has to cross. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.
Fair questions, straight answers
Two moving averages: the 111-day SMA and twice the 350-day SMA. When the 111-day crosses above, it has historically marked a cycle top within days. Created by Philip Swift; 350 / 111 ≈ 3.15, close to π, which gives it the name.
It crossed on April 5, 2013, December 5, 2013, December 16, 2017 and April 12, 2021 — each within days of a major top. It did not cross at the November 2021 top or the 2025 top, which is why no single indicator should be used alone.
The 111-day SMA divided by twice the 350-day SMA. At 1.00 the lines cross. It turns the crossover into one number, so you can see how close the lines are rather than eyeballing the chart.