Hash Ribbons — when miners give up.
Two moving averages of Bitcoin's hashrate. When the 30-day drops below the 60-day, miners are switching machines off. When it recovers and price turns up, that has been one of Bitcoin's better-known buy signals.
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The ribbon gap since 2011
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HASHRATE DATA: MEMPOOL.SPACE
Indicators describe where price sits relative to its own history. They are not forecasts and not financial advice. Past cycle behaviour is no guarantee of future cycles.
Every buy signal and what followed
| BTC CLOSE | CAPITULATION | PRICE SINCE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | $80,279 | 35 days | +5% |
| Jul 22, 2026 | $66,083 | 43 days | +28% |
| May 11, 2026 | $81,736 | 44 days | +3% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | $70,896 | 58 days | +19% |
| Jan 4, 2026 | $91,501 | 35 days | -8% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | $65,376 | 34 days | +29% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | $64,091 | 63 days | +32% |
| Jan 15, 2023 | $20,885 | 48 days | +304% |
| Aug 20, 2022 | $21,146 | 45 days | +299% |
| Aug 9, 2021 | $46,293 | 66 days | +82% |
| Dec 3, 2020 | $19,448 | 34 days | +334% |
| Jul 12, 2020 | $9,306 | 48 days | +808% |
| Apr 25, 2020 | $7,548 | 36 days | +1019% |
| Dec 27, 2019 | $7,246 | 36 days | +1066% |
| Jan 11, 2019 | $3,632 | 72 days | +2225% |
| Feb 5, 2013 | $20.50 | 50 days | +411886% |
| Dec 27, 2011 | $4.29 | 72 days | +1968599% |
A signal is the first day after a capitulation ends that the 10-day average of price sits above its 20-day average. Capitulations shorter than 30 days are skipped: daily hashrate is an estimate from block times, and brief dips under the 60-day average are noise rather than miners leaving.
What it read at past tops and bottoms
| DATE | BTC CLOSE | 30-DAY ÷ 60-DAY | HASHRATE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 1.286 | 7.04 PH/s |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 14, 2015 | $171.41 | 1.023 | 277 PH/s |
| 2017 top | Dec 17, 2017 | $18,953 | 1.105 | 13.6 EH/s |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | 0.877 | 41.7 EH/s |
| April 2021 top | Apr 13, 2021 | $63,564 | 1.035 | 166 EH/s |
| November 2021 top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 1.052 | 164 EH/s |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | 1.023 | 274 EH/s |
| 2025 top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 1.046 | 1,119 EH/s |
| Latest close | Sep 27, 2026 | $84,457 | 1.013 | 1,019 EH/s |
Get pinged when it crosses your level
Set a level of 1.000 above to hear when a capitulation ends, or below to hear when one starts. Set an indicator alert and coinsentry checks it at every daily close, pinging you on Telegram, Discord, Slack, email or webhook the first close it crosses your level — once, or every time it crosses. Indicator alerts are part of the Unlimited plan. Prefer a price level? Bitcoin price alerts are on the Bitcoin price alerts page.
Fair questions, straight answers
Charles Edwards' miner capitulation indicator. It compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin's hashrate, the total computing power securing the network. When the 30-day falls below the 60-day, miners are switching machines off: a capitulation.
The capitulation ends (the 30-day average climbs back above the 60-day) and price momentum turns up, measured as the 10-day average of price rising above the 20-day. Here only capitulations lasting at least 30 days count, because daily hashrate estimates are noisy.
It signalled in January 2019 at $3,632, July 2020, August 2021, August 2022 and January 2023 near the bear-market lows, and July 2024. It has also signalled several times through 2026 as mining margins tightened, so it marks miner stress, not only cycle bottoms.
Daily average hashrate from mempool.space, an open-source Bitcoin explorer, going back to the genesis block. Hashrate isn't measured directly; it's estimated from how fast blocks are found at the current difficulty.